The task of obtaining adequate assess of the threat`s probability and risks of information security as well as forecasting the vectors of likely attacks of hackers using new methods has become rather relevant with active penetration of information technologies (IS) in organizations. This study substantiates a new method for predicting the probability of computer attacks considered from the perspective of the offender's priorities. This method is based on analyzing hierarchies with dynamic priorities and preferences. For practical use the choice of key attack factors was justified and a comparative analysis of the proposed and already known methods for predicting the probability of attacks is carried out. This has helped us to identify its advantages and limitations. Estimates of the probability of computer attacks in 2019 were obtained.