The authors describe a scientifically-based methodology developed for the assessment of information security threats of an organization with the account of the economic interest of the violator in conducting a computer attack on the selected organization, based on the "Theory of Provisions on Criminology" of C.Beccaria and I. Bentham, as well as the theory of innovations diffusion by E. Rogers, F. Bassa, E. Mansfield and T. Hagerstrand. The results of forecasting the dynamics of the vector of computer attacks from the violator's point of view are discussed, confirming the adequacy of this methodology. The information will be useful for specialists in the field of information security, researchers as well as graduate, undergraduates and students of relevant specialties.